NFL Sunday Night: Packers In Different Zone Set To Dominate Falcons

Sunday, October 09, 2011

 

Aaron Rodgers - NFL Sunday Night: Packers In Different Zone Set To Dominate Falcons

Analysis:
It's been 46 years since the Green Bay Packers opened a campaign with five straight victories. The Atlanta Falcons would love to deny them a 5-0 start and avenge last season's home postseason loss, but know they must slow down the league's hottest quarterback to do so.

The Aaron Rodgers-led Packers return to the Georgia Dome on Sunday for the first time since a 48-21 NFC Divisional Playoff victory over the Falcons on Jan. 15, part of a current 10-game winning streak that includes a win over the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. Green Bay won three straight road playoff contests en route to reaching the championship game.

Rodgers threw for 366 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in that win over the Falcons, and has yet to slow down since. His 1,325 passing yards so far are the most in club history through a season's first four games, and in last weekend's 49-23 rout of the Denver Broncos he became the first player in league history to post 400 passing yards (408), four passing touchdowns and two rushing scores.

Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, October 9, 2011. Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Last Week's results:
- Green Bay Packers (-12.5) beats visiting Denver Broncos 49-23.
- Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) beats host Seattle Seahawks 30-28.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Green Bay covers
- Favourite Atlanta wins but does not cover.

NFL Football Odds: Packers -6.5, O/U 54

Next up:
- Green Bay home to St. Louis, Sunday, October 16
- Atlanta home to Carolina, Sunday, October 16

QB Matt Ryan's new favorite target is first-round pick Julio Jones, who leads all rookies with 24 catches for 342 yards. Despite the addition of Jones, Atlanta is a middling 16th in scoring (22.5 ppg). The pass defense, which was the Achilles heel in the playoff loss to the Packers, also is still an issue (24th in the league, 275.5 ypg). Prized free agent DE Ray Edwards has yet to record a sack, and Atlanta hasn't reached the quarterback in three games. Conversely, Atlanta's offensive line has struggled to protect Ryan, who has been sacked 13 times.

The Packers, who lead in the NFL in scoring (37.0 ppg), have totaled a franchise-record 148 points over the first four games. Against Denver, Rodgers became the first player in NFL history to have 400 yards passing (408), four touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns. He is first in the league in completion percentage (73.0) and second in touchdowns (12). WR Jordy Nelson, who signed a three-year contract extension this week, has three touchdowns in the first four games. The offense should be at full strength with both RB Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) and RT Bryan Bulaga (knee) expected to return. If there's a fly in the ointment, it is Green Bay's pass defense, which ranks next-to-last in the NFL (335.8 ypg).

Packers CB Charles Woodson returned an interception for a touchdown last week. It was the 11th of his career – one shy of tying Hall of Famer Rod Woodson (no relation) for the most in NFL history.

Rodgers was 31 of 36 for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-21 divisional-round win over Atlanta. He is 82 of 108 for 1,023 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in three starts vs. the Falcons.

Ryan is 21-2 at home in three-plus years as a starter.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
Atlanta is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Rodgers' start has even caught the attention of legendary Packer Brett Favre, so you know the Falcons will be keeping all eyes on the Green Bay quarterback this weekend. It might not matter. Rodgers is in a Peyton Manning-type zone, namely the ability to make big plays on the field regardless of who the target is. He isn't afraid to throw to any of his receivers, and that will make it difficult for Atlanta's shaky pass defense, which is tied for 24th in the league, to come up with big stops. The Falcons' best chance is to get some pressure on Rodgers in the hopes he makes some mistakes, but even the Georgia Dome won't rattle the defending Super Bowl champs.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Packers.

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aaron rodgers - atlanta falcons - bryan bulaga - charles woodson - georgia dome - green bay packers - jordy nelson - julio jones - matt ryan - ray edwards

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