NFL Football Week 12 Predictions: Titans Hosts Inconsistent Bucs

Saturday, November 26, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Matt Hasselbeck - NFL Football Week 12 Predictions: Titans Hosts Inconsistent Bucs

Analysis:
It's bad enough that the Tennessee Titans haven't been able to rely on running back Chris Johnson much this season, and the latest arm issue with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck could squelch any plans on a playoff run.

The Titans still have a pulse in the AFC postseason picture with a 5-5 record, but have lost four of six games since a 3-1 start. They are back at LP Field this week after back-to-back road tilts and will welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Music City on Sunday.

Tennessee almost rallied to beat Atlanta in last weekend's 23-17 loss in which Hasselbeck left the game in the third quarter with a right elbow injury. Tests revealed no structural damage, however, and first-year head coach Mike Munchak said his quarterback looks good and Hasselbeck arm strength is back to normal.

Rookie quarterback Jake Locker handled some of the reps in practice, with Hasselbeck gradually working his way in. Hasselbeck completed 13-of-25 passes for 124 yards with an interception against the Falcons and Locker finished 9- of-19 for 140 yards and a pair of touchdown passes -- the first two of his young career.

Johnson's lack of production this season has made it difficult for the passing game, and he ran for a season-low 13 yards on 12 carries in Atlanta, a week after rushing for a season-best 130 yards at Carolina. Whether his holdout over the summer has played any part in his limited contributions has been the source of debate, but there's no question that Titans need their All-Pro running back giving defensive coordinators nightmares like he has in the past.

Tennessee is second in the AFC South, two games behind Houston.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are hoping they can turn things around when they invade Tennessee this weekend. The Bucs have lost a season-high four in a row following a 4-2 start and dropped their third straight game on the road with a 35-26 defeat in Green Bay last Sunday.

Tampa Bay never backed down from the unbeaten and defending Super Bowl champion Packers, however, as quarterback Josh Freeman passed for a career-best 342 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.

The Bucs have hitched their wagon to running back LeGarrette Blount, and the bruising back almost single-handedly led his team to victory at Lambeau Field. Blount had 18 carries for 107 yards, including a career-long 54-yard touchdown run that will be on highlight reels for some time.

Blount was released by the Titans at the start of last season and may have an extra chip on his shoulder for this matchup.

Tampa Bay will need to play with some attitude, since its season could be on the line this week. A third-place tag in the NFC South is what the Bucs are left with right now, as New Orleans and Atlanta are battling for division supremacy. The Buccaneers know they must improve immediately and hope bad luck haunts the other teams gunning for a postseason spot in the crowded conference.

The Titans have won seven of nine lifetime meetings with the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay came through with a 13-10 victory at Raymond James Stadium in the teams' most recent encounter back in 2007. The Titans' franchise had defeated the Bucs five consecutive times prior to that result, including a 31-28 overtime decision at LP Field in 2001 and a 33-13 triumph in Nashville two years later. Tampa Bay is 0-6 as the visitor in this series, and the Bucs' only other win in this set was a 33-24 home verdict over the then-Houston Oilers in 1983.

Munchak and the Buccaneers' Raheem Morris will be opposing each other, as well as their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time in their present positions.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27, 2011. LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee

Last Week's results:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14) loses to host Green Bay Packers 35-26.
- Tennessee Titans (+6) loses to host Atlanta Falcons 23-17.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) loses but covers
- Underdog Tennessee Titans (5-5) pushed.

NFL Football Odds: Titans -3.5, O/U 43.5

Next up:
- Tampa Bay home to Carolina, Sunday, December 4
- Tennessee at Buffalo, Sunday, December 4

The young Buccaneers haven’t won since Oct. 16. Tampa Bay did show signs of life, however, in a 35-26 loss to Green Bay last week. Josh Freeman threw for a career-best 342 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions and former Titan LeGarrette Blount had a highlight-reel 54-yard touchdown run in which he shrugged off several defenders. WR Mike Williams also added his first touchdown catch since Week 1. It wasn’t enough to make up for the second-worst defense in the league (398.9 ypg).


Hasselbeck left last week’s loss 23-17 loss to Atlanta in the third quarter after hitting his arm on a defender’s helmet. An MRI exam revealed no structural damage and the team seems confident he will be able to start. Rookie Jake Locker, the eighth overall pick, would start if Hasselbeck can’t go. Locker nearly rallied the Titans from a 23-3 deficit by throwing a pair of touchdowns to Nate Washington and finished 9 of 19 for 140 yards.

Whoever is behind center will need more help from Johnson, who followed up a season-best 130-yard effort by rushing for a mere 13 yards on 12 carries. The former 2,000-yard rusher is averaging a career-low 3.2 yards per carry. As a result, the Titans’ rushing attack is ranked dead last in the NFL (77.3 ypg). The running game may take a bigger hit if RT David Stewart (calf) can't play. He’s questionable, along with former Buccaneers LB Barrett Ruud (groin).

Both teams have been penalized heavily this season, with the Titans committing 10 for 86 yards last week. Just two NFL teams have more yards off penalties than the Titans' 719, and only Oakland (103), Carolina (84) and Tampa Bay (83) have produced more yellow flags. Both coaches are frustrated with the lack of discipline, and each team will have to cut down on its mistakes to have the best chance of winning.

Freeman and the Bucs' offense must improve down the final stretch of the season if reaching the playoffs is on the agenda. Morris held back-to-back padded practices for the first time since the start of the regular season prior to the Green Bay game, but cutting down on the turnovers is a must for his team.

The Titans should have no issues at quarterback no matter who plays under center, but establishing the ground game could relieve pressure on the shoulders of Hasselbeck or Locker. Tennessee has the NFL's worst ground attack, posting just 77.3 rushing yards per game.

The Buccaneers have surrendered nine pass plays of at least 40 yards, matching their total from 2010.

The Titans have won 18 of 21 against the NFC, including eight of nine at home.

If Johnson is going to bounce back, this is the week. Tampa Bay is 26th in the NFL, allowing 133.5 rushing yards per game.

Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tennessee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

The Buccaneers can match their win total from last year by winning the last six games, and that would be a long shot given the rest of the schedule. However, Morris had the right idea with harder practices last week and said the padded sessions were key to his team's performance in Green Bay.

The offense played much better than in had in recent weeks thanks in part to both Freeman and Blount, and both will have to click again on the road this week. The Titans have struggled as well, and their woes could continue. A loss won't seal Tennessee's postseason fate just yet, but it will certainly make it harder to recuperate.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Buccaneers.

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afc south - atlanta falcons - barrett ruud - chris johnson - david stewart - green bay packers - jake locker - josh freeman - lambeau field - legarrette blount

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